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1, 2, 3 of Uncertainty…

  • reknirbecurb
  • 5 days ago
  • 2 min read

Three of the core techniques from Rich Diviney's Mastering Uncertainty Method:


1. Moving Horizons


This is the central tool: instead of facing an entire uncertain ordeal at once, you pick a DPO (Duration, Pathway, Outcome) - a small, near-term horizon to focus on. You pick a horizon, create a DPO, move to that horizon, and repeat until either you move through the uncertainty entirely, learn enough to ease the discomfort, or accomplish the goal. 


• Example: running for hours through the night carrying heavy boats, Diviney stopped thinking about the whole night and instead told himself he'd just focus on reaching the end of one sand berm - SUCCESS - that became his horizon.


• Same logic applies to small daily stress: freezing in the surf during SEAL training, he'd focus only on counting five waves; for flight anxiety, the first horizon might just be ten slow breaths. 


• The point of moving horizons is that it lets you manufacture certainty inside an uncertain environment - you can't control the whole situation, but you can control the next small target.


2. Keep Going (the body's "performance engine")


This is about reframing stress physiologically rather than psychologically. Stress, often seen as purely harmful, is treated as a biological tool that primes you for performance - uncertainty triggers a burst of adrenaline and sharpened focus meant to help you act, not shut down. The catch: without a clear focus, that energy curdles into panic or paralysis instead - which is exactly why it's paired with moving horizons. The small goal gives the adrenaline surge somewhere useful to go.


3. Stay Cool


This is the calming/regulation side - bringing your nervous system back under control so your decision-making brain stays online. Diviney's tools include: staying in the present moment rather than spinning on far-off what-ifs, conserving energy (SEALs will nap flying into combat instead of mentally rehearsing worst cases), and using physiological techniques like breathing patterns or fixed visual focus to lower autonomic arousal so the frontal lobe — the part responsible for reasoned decisions - stays engaged rather than getting hijacked by fear. 


Together, the three work as a loop: stay cool keeps your nervous system regulated enough to think clearly → moving horizons gives you something concrete to aim at → the performance engine (stress response) gives you the energy to actually move toward it. It maps well onto something like a hundred-miler - you're not managing "the race," you're managing the next aid station.

 
 
 

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